Misjument

"We misjudged their tenacity," a senior U.S. intelligence official says of Iraq's leaders. "These guys are driven by a hatred (toward the United States) that we may have underestimated."

The failed effort appears to reflect a miscalculation by the Pentagon and CIA of the willingness or ability of Iraq's political and military leaders to overthrow Saddam. Officials said they believed that if they could get Iraq's leaders to surrender, support for the regime would crumble. They also originally said a conflict inside the capital, Baghdad, could be avoided. Now, they fear the war could drag on longer than expected. U.S. intelligence officials speculate that some Iraqi generals won't surrender because they have been rewarded for their loyalty with power, houses and cars and they believe they can outlast the attacks. Or, fearing retribution against themselves or their families, they won't capitulate until Saddam has been captured or killed. Still other Iraqis genuinely dislike the United States. Their hatred is fed by more than a decade of economic sanctions that followed Iraq's defeat in the Gulf War in 1991. The sanctions have crippled the economy and hurt Iraq's people, Iraqi leaders say.

The effort to topple Saddam involved telephone calls, e-mails and face-to-face appeals to Iraq's top leaders by Iraqi opposition members, CIA operatives and others, U.S. intelligence officials say. The generals and political leaders were promised safety, asylum, cash and a role in Iraq's new government if they defected, mounted a coup or agreed not to use biological or chemical weapons against coalition forces. If they refused, the generals and political leaders were warned they would be killed or face war crimes tribunals.

Ten days ago, U.S. officials were so confident they could persuade Iraqi leaders to surrender that they delayed the bombing of Baghdad by several hours. Since then, Iraqi officials have repeatedly rejected surrender appeals, U.S. intelligence officials say. They say they have concluded that Saddam's inner circle is unlikely to give up.

One Iraqi general says U.S. officials should not be surprised. "(The) Iraqi people are ready to fight. We are ready to defend President Saddam Hussein," Maj. Gen. Ali Musa Ramadan, a commander in the Ministry of Defense, said by telephone Sunday. "We don't want George Bush's bribes."

Ramadan says he and other Iraqi generals "laugh and hang up" on Iraqi opposition leaders when they call to make the offers. "They are wasting their time," he says. "They are stupid people."

Profiles of Iraq's generals and political leaders written by the Pentagon to assess the chances that the men might surrender indicated they would capitulate quickly, intelligence officials say. They say the profiles were based mostly on information supplied by Iraqi opposition groups. "Our intelligence assessments were overly optimistic," a senior U.S. military official says. "They were simply wrong."

Other officials point out that the war is only a week old and predict that Iraq's generals and political leaders will surrender if they see U.S. forces moving toward Baghdad. They say their effort to get them to capitulate will continue, but at a reduced rate.